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The German government has ruled out scrapping its eco - tax and refused demands for a direct cut in diesel excise duty. Instead the government considers helping welfare - recipients hurt by higher petrol and heating oil costs and will offer a package of social and fiscal measures.
In contrast to previous oil crises, many experts have no simple explanation for the recent price rises. The president of the OPEC (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which produce almost 40 percent of world's oil) said, that an energy crisis is imminent, if worldwide refining and production capacity doesn't grow. Ali Rodriguez, Venezuela's oil minister, said OPEC's latest output quota agreement is enough to meet worldwide crude oil demand, but the capacity limitations and the sparse production and refining capacity of some OPEC and non - OPEC countries could block an improvement of the oil prices. International pressure on OPEC to increase production leaded up to a meeting of the OPEC in Vienna last weekend. OPEC agreed to raise its target output for the third time this year (26.2 million barrels a day from 25.4 million barrels a day). Rodriguez said, that OPEC has spare capacity of more than 2 million barrels, but several OPEC countries are nearing their capacity ceiling. For example Norway, which is not a member of the OPEC, but often cooperates with the organization, has admitted, that its oil wells are already producing up to capacity. Rodriguez insisted that OPEC's 800000 barrels a day quota increase is enough to meet worldwide demand for crude oil and called on consuming countries to increase refining capacity and lower gasoline taxes. He said the principal factor that increases fuel prices are high taxes, the OPEC estimates that taxes and refining activities contribute 84 percent of gasoline prices, while the price of crude contributes only 16 percent. An other big problem which Rodriguez mentioned was, that falling refining capacity especially in the United States has created a bottle - neck effect, which prevents finished oil products from reaching the market in time to meet demand. He said the OPEC is willing to increase production a fourth time this year if the market calls for it, but also want to avoid an irrational production increase that could lead to price crash similar to the one in 1998, which was so drastic, that some OPEC countries are still struggling to recover from it. Besides crude oil prices that are at 10 - year highs, leading to spikes in the cost of gasoline and heating oil, natural gas prices have surged to all - time records. Such countries as the United States which have shied away from ecologically harmful energy sources like nuclear and coal - fired power plants are less vulnerable to oil price swings than 20 years ago, because of their new technology - oriented economy. Effects like higher pump prices and 20$ surcharges on round - trip air tickets have been minor, but there are limits to how long the USA can shrug. Specialists disagree, when they try to explain the reasons of the recent price rises. The reasons of previous energy crises where easier to explain, during the 1970s big increases were caused by supply interruptions caused by the Arab oil embargo during the 1973 Middle East war and the 1979 Islamic revolution. Now the experts attribute the price rises to high demand caused by continuing good time in the USA, Europe's growth and a fast recovery in Asia, which resulted in that the world oil production has being pushed to near capacity.
The experts also say that the most debilitating impact will be felt in Asia, because emerging economies like South Korea and Taiwan still depend on such heavy industries as steel - production, while the USA and Europe have learned from previous oil shocks and developed greater energy efficiency. Countries like South Korea and Taiwan will suffer a drop of 2 percent in their gross national product this year unless oil prices sink quickly. Experts say, that the low oil inventories have been a problem, and that refineries appear to have been slow to rev up production in anticipation of lower world oil prices that have not materialized, but this also do not completely explain the surge in gasoline prices. The oil industry blames much of the price spikes this summer on a requirement for cleaner - burning blend of reformed gasoline. The costs of making the new gasoline are higher than anticipated because of blending problems. The cleaner burning gasoline costs the consumers 5 cents a gallon more than conventional gasoline. In the Midwest the situation is worse, for example in Chicago, where the prices have jumped 30 cents to 50 cents a gallon. Depleted reserves in many oil - producing Western countries and continuing speculation in world oil markets almost guarantee that prices will remain chaotic for the next 18 to 24 months.
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